IMD Predicts Good Monsoon for 2024, Relief for Himachal Pradesh After Last Year's Devastation...
Shimla – The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has shared some hopeful news about this year’s monsoon.
According to their latest forecast released here today the country can expect the Southwest monsoon from June to September 2024 to bring 106% of the usual rainfall.
This is especially significant for Himachal Pradesh, which suffered severely last year with over 550 lives lost and damage costing Rs 12,000 crore.
In 2023, the heavy rains in July and August caused massive destruction, affecting 22,000 families in the state. This year, however, the IMD predicts that Northwest India, including Himachal Pradesh, will see normal rainfall, between 92% and 108% of the usual amount.
Here’s what to expect for the monsoon season:
-June Rainfall: The country should see normal rainfall, though some places in Northwest India might get more than usual.
However, parts of northern and eastern Northwest India might see less rainfall.
Temperatures:Most of the country will experience warmer temperatures, but the far northern parts of Northwest India could see normal or slightly cooler nights.
The IMD has also given the odds for different rainfall scenarios:
- **Very Low Rainfall:** 2% chance
- **Below Normal Rainfall:** 8% chance
- **Normal Rainfall:** 31% chance
- **Above Normal Rainfall:** 32% chance
- **Heavy Rainfall:** 29% chance
For Northwest India, there's an 84% chance of normal to above-normal rainfall. This is good news for Himachal Pradesh, where the average monsoon rainfall from 1971-2020 was 734.4 mm, and June typically sees 101.1 mm.
Here’s the average monsoon rainfall for some districts in Himachal Pradesh:
- **Bilaspur:** 819.1 mm
- **Chamba:** 853.4 mm
- **Hamirpur:** 973.2 mm
- **Kangra:** 1622.4 mm
- **Kinnaur:** 247.8 mm
- **Kullu:** 548 mm
- **Lahaul & Spiti:** 382.9 mm
- **Mandi:** 1097.5 mm
- **Shimla:** 627.5 mm
- **Sirmaur:** 1183.8 mm
- **Solan:** 874.3 mm
- **Una:** 953 mm
The IMD also mentioned some weather patterns affecting the forecast. Earlier this year, a weather condition called El Niño was strong but has now weakened.
This means we're likely to see normal conditions at the start of the monsoon, possibly shifting to a condition called La Niña later, which could bring more rain.
Another weather factor, the Indian Ocean Dipole, is currently neutral but might turn positive during the monsoon, also bringing more rain.
The IMD will provide more updates in June 2024. This forecast offers a ray of hope for Himachal Pradesh, suggesting a more manageable monsoon season this year, allowing the state to better prepare and recover from last year’s havoc.
