SHIMLA: Never before have the voters of Himachal Pradesh kept the ruling BJP and opposition Congress on a razer-edge. The long wait is over as the counting of votes starts on Thursday at 8:00 AM, raising tempers high for 412 candidates in fray for the state assembly elections, 2022.
The voters trashed EXIT polls, saying that the voters verdict would come out on December 8. The verdict might shock the ruling BJP and would drop some bombshells for the ambitious CM candidates from Congress and BJP as well.
The results would decide the fate of BJP national president Jagat Prakash Nadda(JPN) and Chief Minister Jai Ram Thakur(JRT), who have played a major role in BJP election campaign and in deciding the party tickets in this elections.
The stakes for JPN-JRT Jugalbandi is higher than for anyone in the state.
On the other hand, anger and sidelining of the Prof PK Dhumal and his group in the poll arena was more conspicuous and pronounced on the ground that has added to the worry of the BJP.
The results would also decide the “impact of Modi magic in elections mainly in Mandi as Prime Minister Narendra Modi put all his might behind the BJP campaign to woo the 57 lakh voters by addressing over seven big rallies over a period of time.
Prime Minister went even to the extent of saying in Solan Vijay Sankalp Rally that you (voters) should not consider the candidates, they should vote for him (Modi).
This remark has unleashed a political debate in the country about the "lows and highs of political narrative" that impact the democracy in days to come.
Congress appears more confident of winning the elections and forming the next state government in Himachal Pradesh than the ruling BJP.
BJP insiders fear backlash of the SC and ST votes as much as they fear the rejection from the "angry state employees and pensioners supporting the Old Pension scheme and apple farmers stir in Shimla distrit that the Congress used to hilt in the campaigns.
BJP had resorted to damage control exercise when it lost four by-elections in 2021.
BJP appointed Suresh Kashyap as its president and Prof Sikender Kumar as its Sankalp Patra head, but perhaps damage was done, revealed insiders.
The Hatti reservation issue added another fuel to anger of the Dalits, though BJP tried its best to not to pay it up in the rest of Himachal.
Even if Congress comes out with a clear majority, there are unfounded talks that Congress has a long list of “CM hopefuls” that can split the party into factions- something on which BJP can poach in.
On another extreme, some of MLAs and independent or two, just due to an alleged lure of “money bags”, could switch sides, thereby could result in the repeat of the BJP government- something for which BJP could go to any extent to ensure its government”, say the analysts.
To keep its tribe intact, Congress might resort to fire fighting and in such a scenario, national leader Priyanka Gandhi might intervene and might act as a unifier.
After all, Priyanka Gandhi had been telling crowds during four Parivartan Rallies in Mandi, Solan, Nagrota and Una that “she is also a Himachal ki Beti and lives in Chrabara near Shimla”.
While the coming days would bare it all after the results on December 8, but BJP and Congress continued to make claims and counter claims citing so-called exit polls and opinions polls.
The BJP, however, claims that the Party will change Riwaaz and stage a comeback on the strength of its much hyped “double engine government”.
On the other, Congress asserts that its main poll plank on implementation of old pension scheme(OPS) and other guarantees and support for the farmers were well received by the voters.
"Nailing last coffin to BJP regime could be the rising unemployment, inflation and issues of governance of Jai Ram Thakur regime", asserted Congress leaders.
The voters came out in large number and voted for Congress decisively, the Congress leaders claim.
It is time to examine grounds on which the elections were fought and factors that shaped up public opinions that guide voters to vote for and against the parties and candidates in fray.
When one analysed the performance of BJP’s double engine government, the voters had a fair idea of what the Jai Ram Thakur government did and what he said in public during the last five years.
Congress tried to spread among the voters that nothing much happened in 2018-2019.
Jai Ram Thakur spent quite sometime convincing public saying that “people should accept that he (Jai Ram Thakur)is a Chief Minister now”.
Jai Ram Thakur was new to the “CM chair” and took time to adjust his driving seat. There were allegations that he faced three power centres in CM office- ABVP, RSS and some ministers in his Council of Ministers.
2019 was a Lok Sabha election year. BJP foccussed both its eyes and energy on winning Lok Sabha elections.
BJP won all the four Lok Sabha seats by securing leads on almost all 68 assembly segments in Himachal in what had turned out to be a “Modi wave of 2019”.
But somehow he foccussed on wages, social security pension and health coverage, targeting vulnerable groups in the state by increasing the daily wages, pension and health care cover soon after the Modi government announced Ayushman Bharat health scheme.
Before he could set himself on the saddle, Corona Pandemic struck its unprecedented lethal blow. Like India and rest of world, Himachal also suffered on all fronts throughout 2020-21 and 2021-22.
Over lakhs of people lost their jobs and earnings in tourism industry, private industries, horticulture and real estate. It was a question of survival of people.
The recovery was slow and it is still continuing.
Central and state governments say they fought and won war against Pandemic by vaccinating the entire population.
Jai Ram Thakur government tried its best to justify “its inaction” on the ground that they had to fight pandemic.
“He could not get time to do what he could have done in a normal tenure”.
Despite large part of the term having spent in thing pandemic, Jai Ram Thakur performed well that gave a little chance to unearth any big scam against his government in the state.
BJP tried to use the angry Congressmen- Harsh Mahajan in Chamba and Shimla, Lakhvinder Rana, Pawan Kajal Major Mankotia in Kangra to corner Congress by fanning out an anti-Congress sentiment among the voters.
But did it pay to the party or these Congress leaders were just spent bullets, only the results will bare it tomorrow, said the workers.
Congress is confident of making it big in key bigger districts of Kangra, Shimla and Una and Hamirpur while BJP is confident to make it big in Mandi, home district of Jai Ram Thakur.
