Shimla/New Delhi, June 11: The southwest monsoon has picked up pace after making its onset over Kerala on June 4, advancing into more parts of southern, eastern and central India. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Thursday said conditions remain favourable for the monsoon to push deeper into Maharashtra, Odisha, Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand, Bihar and eastern Uttar Pradesh over the next week.
According to the IMD's latest extended range forecast issued by the Ministry of Earth Sciences, the monsoon has already covered the entire Kerala, Tamil Nadu, Goa, Lakshadweep and northeastern states, besides most parts of Karnataka and portions of Maharashtra, Telangana, Andhra Pradesh, West Bengal and Bihar.
The weather office reported heavy to very heavy rainfall at isolated places across several parts of the country during the past week, particularly in the Northeast, Kerala, Tamil Nadu, Konkan-Goa and the Andaman and Nicobar Islands. Himachal Pradesh also witnessed isolated hailstorm activity on June 5 and again on June 10.
The IMD has advised farmers and tourists in Himachal Pradesh and Punjab to remain alert as western disturbances and associated weather systems are likely to trigger thunderstorms, gusty winds, lightning and isolated hailstorm activity over the region during the coming days. Orchardists, vegetable growers and farmers have been advised to secure crops, avoid spraying operations during adverse weather and ensure proper drainage in fields to prevent waterlogging.
Tourists heading to hill destinations in Himachal have been urged to monitor weather updates before travelling, avoid venturing into landslide-prone areas during spells of rain and refrain from trekking or camping near vulnerable slopes, streams and riverbanks.
Despite the monsoon's progress, rainfall across the country remains below normal. The all-India cumulative rainfall from June 1 to June 10 stood at 26 per cent below the long-period average (LPA). Central India recorded the largest deficit at 45 per cent, while East and Northeast India reported a 39 per cent shortfall. South Peninsular India, however, registered rainfall slightly above normal.
The IMD said a western disturbance over the western Himalayas, a cyclonic circulation over Haryana and another circulation over southeast Uttar Pradesh are expected to influence weather conditions during the coming week. These systems are likely to aid the further advance of the monsoon and trigger rainfall activity across large parts of northern, eastern and central India.
On the climate front, the IMD noted that ENSO-neutral conditions are gradually transitioning towards El Niño, with model forecasts indicating the possible development of El Niño conditions during the southwest monsoon season. At the same time, a weak positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), which generally supports monsoon rainfall over India, is expected to emerge towards the latter part of the season.
Meteorologists are also closely monitoring the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), a key tropical weather driver, which is forecast to move through favourable phases during the forecast period, though its intensity is expected to weaken from the second week onward.
The IMD said rainfall activity is likely to remain active over eastern, northeastern and parts of central India between June 11 and June 24, helping the monsoon maintain its advance after a somewhat sluggish start marked by a nationwide rainfall deficit.
With the monsoon now steadily marching northward, farmers and water managers will be watching closely to see whether the rainfall deficit narrows in the coming weeks as sowing operations gather momentum across the country.
