In all Exit Polls indicate a Polarized Verdict in Jammu and Kashmir: BJP may Sweep Jammu, Faces  Rough rides in Muslim majority Kashmir...

Jammu/ Srinagar: As Jammu and Kashmir gears up for the counting of votes for its 90 Assembly seats on October 8, exit polls reveal a sharply polarized verdict.

if one goes by the exit polls,  BJP is poised to dominate in Jammu but is expected to face a complete rough ride  in the Muslim majority Valley, despite its development push in the region.

The BJP's relentless attacks on dynastic politics—targeting the Gandhis, Abdullahs, and Muftis—may have impressed the common man in Kashmir, but it failed to convert into votes.

Despite the narrative gaining appreciation in the Valley, the exit poll results claimed to be a different story.

With a polling turnout of 65.57%, much higher than anticipated, it highlights a significant shift.

Voters actively participated in the democratic process, signaling a clear rejection of fundamentalist agendas.

However, the BJP's narrative against the dynasts didn't clinch the numbers they expected if  the exit polls are to be believed.

The polarized voting pattern has set the stage for a highly fragmented outcome, with the National Conference (NC) and Congress alliance emerging as potential frontrunners.

Exit Poll Numbers (Various Sources):

BJP: 25-32 seats (primarily from Jammu)

NC+Congress Alliance: 28-34 seats (strong showing in the Valley)

PDP: 5-9 seats

Others: 6-10 seats

The BJP, according to multiple exit polls, is projected to sweep Jammu, consolidating its Hindu vote bank, while the National Conference and Congress alliance is predicted to perform strongly in the Muslim-majority Valley.

Meanwhile, Mehbooba Mufti’s PDP is expected to remain a significant player but may struggle to regain its earlier strength. Smaller parties and independents are also expected to win a handful of seats.

Polarization of Votes: Jammu and Kashmir

The exit poll data clearly points to an intense polarization in voter preferences between Jammu and Kashmir.

In Jammu, the BJP’s focus on issues like national security, abrogation of Article 370, and development has struck a chord with the largely Hindu electorate.

The party is expected to win the lion’s share of the seats in this region, with several polls giving the BJP between 25-32 seats from Jammu alone.

However, the picture is starkly different in the Kashmir Valley, where the BJP is predicted to draw a blank.

Despite heavy investments in infrastructure and development projects, such as new roads, healthcare facilities, and tourism initiatives, the Muslim-majority Valley has seemingly rejected the BJP’s overtures if one goes by Exit Polls.

Many Muslim voters in Kashmir continue to view the BJP’s policies with suspicion, especially post-Article 370 abrogation.

“Development can’t replace the political identity and aspirations of Kashmiris.

The BJP failed to address the core concerns of the Valley’s electorate, that may be leading to their rejection,” said a political expert from the region.

Reactions from Political Leaders

National Conference leader Omar Abdullah expressed confidence after seeing the exit poll trends, saying, “It’s clear that the people of Jammu and Kashmir want a government that truly represents their aspirations.

The BJP’s policies have alienated the Valley, and that’s why we’re seeing this polarized result.”

Mehbooba Mufti, leader of the PDP, added, “The exit polls reflect the reality that BJP’s divisive politics cannot win the trust of the people of Kashmir. We will continue to fight for a peaceful and dignified future for J&K.”

On the other hand, BJP leaders remained optimistic despite the setback in the Valley. “We are confident that we will form the next government in Jammu and Kashmir.

Our development works have resonated strongly in Jammu, and we will continue to work for the betterment of the entire Union Territory,” said a senior BJP leader from Jammu.

Mood on the Ground

In Jammu, the mood is jubilant among BJP supporters, who believe the party’s focus on national issues, local development, and cultural ties with India’s heartland has resonated with voters.

"The abrogation of Article 370 was a decisive move, and we believe it was the right step.

The people of Jammu support the BJP because it stands for a united and strong India," said a local BJP worker.

In contrast, the atmosphere in the Valley is more subdued, with many voters expressing disillusionment with the BJP.

“The BJP brought roads and bridges, but that doesn’t change the fact that they’ve alienated the people of Kashmir. We need leaders who understand our identity and political aspirations,” said a resident of Srinagar.

Experts' Take on the Exit Polls

Political analysts see the polarized voting pattern as a reflection of the deep divisions within Jammu and Kashmir.

“This election shows that Jammu and Kashmir are still divided politically and socially.

The BJP’s appeal remains strong in Jammu, but the Valley remains out of their reach.

It’s a complex situation, and the final results could lead to a fractured mandate,” said a leading political commentator.

The exit polls suggest that no single party is likely to secure a clear majority, and the formation of the next government could depend on post-election alliances.

With the NC-Congress alliance leading the projections and the BJP securing a stronghold in Jammu, all eyes are on the final count on October 8 to see how the fragmented vote will translate into seat share.

As the state  awaits the final results, the polarized exit polls indicate that Jammu and Kashmir may once again see a highly competitive political scenario, with regional interests playing a crucial role in government formation.