Doval Beijing Visit Sets Stage for Xi-Modi Talks in September
SHIMLA/ITANAGAR/NEW DELHI:
A thaw with Beijing is in the making. National Security Adviser Ajit Doval’s Beijing visit comes at a crucial time. China’s border claims, Arunachal Pradesh and the Brahmaputra mega-dam remain major concerns. Yet New Delhi and Beijing appear keen to create a better atmosphere before Chinese President Xi Jinping’s expected India visit in September for the BRICS summit and his talks with Prime Minister Narendra Modi.
Doval’s mission is therefore more than another round of boundary talks. It is being viewed as an effort to clear the air before the two leaders meet. The immediate objective is to keep the border peaceful. The larger challenge is to rebuild trust without setting aside India’s core security concerns.
The timing of the visit is significant. The 25th round of India-China Special Representatives talks comes after the Galwan clash and years of military tension along the Line of Actual Control.
Any progress in restoring confidence could help create space for more substantive Modi-Xi engagement.
The border, however, remains the hardest issue. Opposition leaders, including Rahul Gandhi, have repeatedly alleged Chinese encroachment and questioned the government’s position.
Concerns have also been voiced from Arunachal Pradesh over Chinese activities and access to traditional grazing areas.
New Delhi rejects claims of any fresh Chinese occupation. Union Minister Kiren Rijiju has said there has been no Chinese intrusion into Indian territory in Arunachal Pradesh. He has maintained that local concerns over grazing and access are genuine but should not be confused with a new occupation. He has also warned against claims that could lower the morale of the armed forces.
The larger territorial dispute remains unresolved. China continues to claim Arunachal Pradesh as part of its territory and has repeatedly attempted to assign Chinese names to places in the state. India has firmly rejected these claims asserting that every inch of Arunachal Pradesh is an integral and non-negotiable part of India.
Infrastructure has become another frontline. India has accelerated roads, bridges, tunnels and last-mile connectivity in its border villages.
China has built an extensive network of roads and other infrastructure across the Tibetan plateau. The race is increasingly about maintaining access, mobility and a permanent presence along the frontier.
The Brahmaputra adds a new strategic dimension. China's proposed mega-hydropower project on the Yarlung Tsangpo, upstream of Arunachal Pradesh, has raised concerns over water security, seismic risks and downstream impacts both in India and Bangladesh.
Strategic affairs expert Dr Brahma Chellaney has called the project potentially “the biggest threat yet.” He has warned that China's control over the Tibetan Plateau gives Beijing enormous leverage over downstream countries and has repeatedly raised concerns over the strategic use of transboundary waters.
Geology has added urgency to the debate. Chinese researchers have reportedly identified an active fault and geological weaknesses around the proposed project area and recommended additional safeguards. The findings have renewed calls for greater transparency over the dam's design, reservoir and safety arrangements.
The stakes extend beyond Arunachal Pradesh. The Brahmaputra supports millions of people in Assam before flowing into Bangladesh. Any major change in river flows, sediment movement or emergency releases could have consequences downstream.
India therefore needs answers from Beijing. New Delhi could press for greater disclosure of the project's technical details, hydrological data, seismic safeguards and emergency-management systems. Independent scientific assessment could also help separate genuine risks from political speculation.
Water security could become an important part of the wider India-China conversation. There is no comprehensive water-sharing treaty between the two countries governing the Brahmaputra, Dr Chellaney said.
The issue therefore requires sustained diplomatic engagement, especially when China is undertaking projects of unprecedented scale upstream.
Foreign Affairs expert Waiel Awwad sees Doval’s visit as a positive signal. He described, while talking to news agency, sending the NSA to Beijing as an indication that India is ready for better relations with China, provided peace and tranquillity prevail on the border and outstanding disputes are addressed before deeper trust-building measures.
The message ahead of Xi’s expected India visit is consequently carefully calibrated. India wants stable borders. China wants improved bilateral engagement. Both have an interest in preventing another period of confrontation from derailing the relationship.
The Modi-Xi meeting could provide the political space for that reset. But the success of any high-level engagement will depend on what happens on the ground—along the LAC, in Arunachal Pradesh and upstream on the Brahmaputra.
For New Delhi, the challenge is to combine diplomacy with preparedness. Stronger border infrastructure, scientific monitoring, hydrological surveillance and regular dialogue with Beijing can provide the foundation for a more confident engagement.
Doval’s Beijing talks could thus be the opening act before the leaders meet. The objective is not to gloss over differences. It is to create enough trust and stability to allow Modi and Xi to discuss them without another border crisis overshadowing the relationship.
The September meeting, if it takes place as expected, will test whether the emerging thaw can become a durable reset.
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