The November 2 by-election results of four seats, all won by the Congress, has unleashed a power struggle both within the Congress and BJP ahead of the coming state assembly elections to be held in 2022 in Himachal Pradesh.
These four seats- Mandi Lok Sabha and three assembly seats fall in the politically significant districts of Mandi, Kangra, Shimla and Solan and the results may go down among the voters to find their pulse ahead of the coming polls.
While Pratibha Singh has emerged stronger after her victory, but it was the united efforts of Congress leaders and workers that managed to pin the BJP in power down. No doubt the "anti-Virbhadra Singh group" in Congress is also trying its best to exploit the results to their advantage.
In Mandi Pratibha Singh rode to victory on a sympathy factor for the Raja late Virbhadra Singh as she got huge margins in Rampur, three tirbal segments of Lahaul-Spiiti, Kinnaur and Bharmour in Chamba district and inner and outer Seraj in Kullu, Banjar, Anni, Manali, where cabinet minister Gobind Thakur could not manage lead for the BJP.
interestingly, senior leader Kaul Singh Thakur and leader of opposition Mukesh Agnihotri, who are trying to pull strings for a major role for the 2022 state assembly elections, have not come to the forefront. Sukhwinder Singh Sukhu appeared on social media among workers as he tried his best to script victory of Sanjay Awasthi in Arki,
Politics apart, the tribals in Lahaul-Spiti and Kinnaur, where voters in few polling stations boycotted polls brought to focus the political apathy of the succesive governments. They are the victims saying that they lack drinking water, connectivity and health facilities in remote tribal villages, the protesters said.
Meantime, the major fallout of the BJP's debacle- clamour for change of Chief Minister- can become more vociferous in days to come. The anti- Chief Minister Jai Ram Thakur lobby in state is already hobnobbing in their political circles. The lobby is using this poll debacle as a stick to beat him with and push a case for his replacement with the BJP high command as it happened in Uttarakhand and Gujarat, comment an analyst of Himachal political affairs.
No doubt Jai Ram Thakur's morale has got a beating, but he has reasons to feel "no such low". Out of nine assembly seats, BJP maintained its lead in eight assembly seats including his home constituency Seraj, which gave the highest lead to BJP, Karsog, Sundarnagar, Drang, Balh, Mandi, Sarkaghat and Jogindernagar in Thakur's home district. Congress led in Nachan(SC reserved) in the district, while 10th assembly seat of Dharampur falls in Hamirpur Lok sabha constituency.
But the margin of lead in the six constituencies was not big and bode ill for the BJP in the coming poll considering the anti-incumbency factor remains a big game changer in HP assembly polls in each election years. The voters disillusioned by the false poll promises of Congress and BJP, always voted the ruling party out from power in each election so far.
Jai Ram Thakur's saving grace, top of it, is that his four years long regime remains broadly "clean" as opposition Congress could not come up with a scam to corner him during the last four years. But the Congress and his opponents always tried their best to pin Jai Ram Thakur on his "soft style of functioning and no control over bureaucracy" on the issue of governance and development.
Indian National Congress won all the four seats- Mandi Lok Sabha seat, leads in 10 assembly seats, and three others, Jubbal-Kotkhai in Shimla, Arki in Solan and Fatehpur in Kangra district defeating the BJP candidates decisively . This has worried Jai Ram Thakur more than anybody else in BJP as he was leading from the front in election campaign mainly in Mandi and may face tough battle ahead, say the analysts.
In other words, Congress won in 13 assembly seats, led in seven BJP seats, while BJP won 7 out of 20 seats in which the bypolls were held on October 30. Congress retained Arki, Fatehpur and wrested Jubbal and Kotkhai from the BJP, increasing its number in the current Vidhan Sabha to 23 members, while BJP's members were reduced to 42. There are three other members -two independents and one member from the CPIM.
Commenting on the poll debacle Jai Ram Thakur said in Shimla that the victory margin in Mandi Lok sabha was narrow and they would do soul-searching over the debacle. "Congress did not have any issue against the government and we respect verdict given by the people", he said.
On the other hand, INC incharge Sanjay Dutta attributed the Congress victory as shradhanjali to late Raja Virbhadra Singh and united efforts of the partyworkers, its leaders and Congress candidates in his twits.
in the state BJP circles, the question, "were the wrong tickets also played role in BJP debacle?" is doing the rounds and debating the role of top leaders including BJP chief Jagat Parkash Nadda, who also hails from Himachal Pradesh. The former Chief Minster PK Dhumal did not show any enthusiasm in the byelections.
Union Cabinet Minister and Hamirpur BJP MP Anurag Singh Thakur was roped in by Nadda to campaign in Jubbal-Kotkhai but his appeal to the voters that they should vote for the candidate who had raised BJP in Jubbal-Kotkhai also had become a talking point among the BJP workers as the entire BJP unit in this segment was expelled from the party for their anti-party activity as they stood by Bragta, say the party workers.
The main bone of contention is BJP ticket in case of Jubbal-Kotkhai. BJP ticket givers could face the heat as BJP rebel Chetan Bragta, riding on sympathy factor following denial of ticket, came close with Rohit Thakur of the Congress. But even then he might have found it hard to win considering BJP Neelam Saraik secured just 2582 votes and Shimla district had been a Congress fort, say the analysts.
Congress and BJP would witness brickbats not only against the rival party but also among rivals within their party groups for struggle for one-upmanship. The issue of leadership in both Congress and BJP for the coming 2022 polls still remains murky.
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