As the exit polls for the 2024 Lok Sabha elections are set to be released tonight, the political battlefield has erupted on social media. The actual results for all 543 lok Sabha seats will start rolling in on June 4... But what has shaped the Lok Sabha 2024...?
PM.Narender Modi led the charge of the lok Sabha Election 2024 brigade across the country once again.
But the pitch, punch and euphoria that marked 2019 Lok Sabha elections were missing. It has given some goosebumps to the ruling BJP at the centre.
To top all. The moderate to average polling of 62 to 65 percent has made the scene and its outcome all the more blurring and intriguing.
The Congress- led INDI alliance leaders Rahul Gandhi, Priyanka Gandhi, Kharge Arvind Kejriwal Akhilesh Yadav, Tejesvi Yadav launched a fierce campaign against the ruling BJP in the regions of their influence, accusing them of trying to change the Constitution and end reservations for Dalits, OBCs . 
They claimed the BJP has favored big capitalists like Adani and Ambani, waived off loans worth ₹12 lakh crores, failed to provide the promised 2 crore jobs each year, raised prices, and crushed farmers and youth dreams with the Agniveer scheme.
Additionally, they argued GST has hit small businesses hard and the nation has been divided on religious lines.
Congress spread its guarantees, Rs 8500 in bank accounts of women every year khatakhat-2 and loan waivers for farmers, scrapping of Agniveer and MSP Act like MNREGA....
BJP’s Vision and Rebuttal
In response, BJP and PM Modi have promoted their vision of a Viksit Bharat and the goal of becoming a top three trillion-dollar economy.
They boast of fulfilling promises like scrapping Article 370 in Jammu and Kashmir, constructing the Ram Mandir in Ayodhya, and regulating the Uniform Civil Code. Modi and Shah have strongly rebutted Congress’s claims on Constitution and reservation, asserting that no power on earth could scrap reservations for SC, ST, and OBC communities, and challenging Congress to announce reservations for Muslims. Modi even stated he would sacrifice his life if Congress gave reservations based on religion.
Himachal Pradesh: A Key Battleground
In Himachal Pradesh, issues like Agniveer and reservation have gained attention in regions like Kangra, Hamirpur, Mandi, and Shimla.
Himachal Pradesh CM Sukhu has made the election a battle between public welfare Jan Bal. and wealth power, Dhan bal, especially in the state assembly by-elections where six Congress rebels joined BJP.
He claimed that BJP’s attempts to topple the government would fail and it has boomeranged on BJP.
In Mandi, Vikramaditya Singh highlighted his vision for Mandi and its divine heritage against BJP’s Kangana Ranaut, who has made various remarks against him and played up Modi card to win votes. It is Himachal ka beta Raja Vikramaditya vs Mandi ke beti Kangana Ranaut.
Singh maintained a mature stance, avoiding personal attacks. Kangan may get an edge in Mandi due to the spirited campaign by Jai Ram Thakur aided by Modi, Yogi, Gadkari while Singh got push from Priyanka Gandhi, Sukhu and Agnihotri.
In Kangra, Anand Sharma has tried to elevate the narrative to a national level, but faced the challenge of being portrayed as an outsider by the BJP, with Dr. Rajiv Bhardwaj positioned as a local social worker.
BJP leader and turncoat Sudhir Sharma has spread the notion that Congress discriminated against Kangra, playing up anti-Congress sentiment.
But which way OBC community and Gaddis will go is the main swing factor to decide the outcome.
In Hamirpur, Deputy CM Mukesh Agnihotri has tried to tilt the scales against BJP’s Anurag Thakur by creating a regional wedge in favor of Congress candidate Satpal Raizada in Una district.
However, Anurag and his father Prof PK Dhumal still hold significant influence in the district and outside and their bastion Hamirpur.
But stakes for survival of CM is higher as Sukhu also come from Hamirpur. All mlas but he himself is there to save the seat.
The dynamics in Hamirpur could shift with Rajinder Rana and Inderdutt Lakhanpal now contesting as BJP candidates from Barsar and Sujanpur, respectively.
Bilaspur voters will play a crucial role in deciding the outcome. Have they jell well with Dhumals?
In Shimla, Congress appears to have an edge. But BJP’s Suresh Kashyap who hails from Sirmaur has eade there while Congress candidate Vinod Sultanpuri, who comes from Solan has an edage there. The outcome depends largely on Shimla district voters, where Congress has six MLAs.
Psephologists and Predictions
Psephologists like Prashant Kishore, Yogendra Yadav, and Dr. Pradeep Bhandhari are predicting mixed responses. Kishore expects over 320 seats for NDA, while Yadav predicts 268, falling short of a majority.
Betting markets favor the INDI alliance with over 305 seats and NDA below 300, indicating BJP’s ambition of crossing 400 seats may not materialize.
Social Media Dynamics
Congress has taken a swipe at Modi, highlighting social media data showing their higher engagement compared to BJP. They claim significant leads in views and likes on platforms like YouTube, Instagram, Twitter, and Facebook from March to May:
Congress claims:
- YouTube: Congress: 613M Views, BJP: 150M Views
- Instagram (Average Likes): Congress: 122,000, BJP: 26,945
- Twitter (Average Likes): Congress: 2,500-3,000, BJP: 260-300
- Facebook (Average Likes): Congress: 1,200-1,500, BJP: 150-250
FB Reach:
- March: 50M
- May: 105M
Twitter Impressions:
- March: 117M
- May: 128M
YT Views:
- March: 80M
- May: 233M
Insta Reach:
- March: 78M
- May: 154M
BJP’s Response
Meanwhile, BJP’s Amit Shah has challenged Congress to face the exit poll results bravely, accusing them of running away from debates and media. Shah taunted that Congress campaigned as if they were sure of a majority but are now avoiding facing the media as they anticipate defeat.
Ultimately, the real deciders are the voters, who have the final say in this intense political contest.
The mood of the voters remains unclear, unlike the decisive sentiment in the 2019 polls. Both parties are anxiously awaiting the results, with high stakes for both the BJP-led NDA and the Congress-led INDI alliance.
